The Clues Are There

A 3-In-1 Quick Sit Idea - Takeover Target, Activist Situation & Energy/Materials Play All In One Name

Disclaimer

Value Situations is NOT investment advice and the author is not an investment advisor.

All content on this website and in the newsletter, and all other communication and correspondence from its author, is for informational and educational purposes only and should not in any circumstances, whether express or implied, be considered to be advice of an investment, legal or any other nature.  Please carry out your own research and due diligence.

---

“… When you look back, there are always clues. You want to find those clues before the event happens.”

John Paulson.

In this issue of the newsletter, I’m publishing the first “Quick Sit” idea of 2023, which involves a stock I’ve written about before and that I now believe is an actionable value situation.

The subject stock is an energy services business that endured a difficult 2022, during which its share price declined ~30% (and was down ~45% at one point last October), a performance at odds with the broader energy complex and reflective of a number of idiosyncratic issues at the company level.

I’ll preface this latest idea by saying that in contrast to my high conviction names (e.g. Deep Breath, Deep Value, Gas Panic!, A Fertile Value Situation ) which were long-form write-ups based on deep research and analysis, the following idea is intended as a “Quick Sit,” by which I mean an opportunistic value trade, similar to (and partly inspired by) the 2x Quick Sit That Got Away that I wrote about in January.

Co-incidentally, as an energy services business this particular name also happens to operate in the same industry as the 2x idea and my Gas Panic! idea (the best performer in my Model Portfolio as at the time of writing, up ~85% since inception last July).

This Quick Sit idea is …