Closing Out 2024
Disclaimer
Value Situations is NOT investment advice and the author is not an investment advisor.
All content on this website and in the newsletter, and all other communication and correspondence from its author, is for informational and educational purposes only and should not in any circumstances, whether express or implied, be considered to be advice of an investment, legal or any other nature. Please carry out your own research and due diligence.
As the Christmas holiday approaches and 2024 draws to a close, I wanted to send a brief note to subscribers to say thank you for reading the Value Situations newsletter over the past year.
In terms of newsletter output, the target was to produce 10-12 ideas in sufficient depth and to an institutional standard, as opposed to churning out a high (e.g. weekly) volume of superficial trading ideas. To this end, during 2024 I published 10 equity ideas, consisting of three Conviction Ideas that were all added to the Model Portfolio (Bunge Global, SigmaRoc Plc and Johnson Matthey Plc) and seven Watchlist ideas. The table below provides a quick summary of this year’s idea output and performance since publication during the year:
Source: Value Situations analysis.
Links to each idea write-up can be found below (accessible to paid subscribers only):
While overall performance to date across the 10 names has been muted with an average return of -3.7%, it’s worth highlighting this largely reflects the event/catalyst-driven nature of these situations. In all cases, the respective value-catalysts for each have yet to really play out, and with underwritten investment terms of 2-3 years compared to an average duration of 5-6 months since publication, there is ample time for their respective investment theses to play out. In addition, the indicative returns on offer are compelling, with average upside of ~100% across the 10 ideas based on my analysis and their current stock prices.
In addition to these 10 names, I also published extensive and frequent updates on a number of existing Model Portfolio names, namely OCI NV, Marlowe Plc, Wood Group Plc and Dowlais Group Plc.
In the case of OCI and Marlowe, the break-up catalysts identified for both materialised during the year which was pleasing, and I believe there is further upside still to come for both names. By contrast, Wood Group and Dowlais have endured a difficult 2024 for differing reasons, however I believe they remain interesting situations with significant potential upside from their current share prices. I continue to hold all four names in the Model Portfolio.
Between the 10 new names published this year, and the extensive ongoing coverage of OCI, Marlowe and other Portfolio names, I believe the overall quality, frequency and value of newsletter output for readers has been strong this year. That said, there is always room for improvement and to add greater value, and following some feedback from a number of readers I have some thoughts on how to improve the newsletter offering, which I will share with subscribers in the New Year.
From the outset, this newsletter has been a serious, full-time endeavour for me and my work is 100% supported by paying subscribers; in writing this newsletter my “job” is to generate interesting and/or actionable ideas for subscribers that supplements their own idea origination process. Your support into 2025 will allow me to continue to do this.
If you are a free subscriber, perhaps you might consider signing up for the paid tier to get access to all my previous ideas and what I believe is an exciting pipeline of new ideas for for 2025.
This is the last newsletter posting from me for 2024. Value Situations will return to your inboxes in January. Until then, my sincere thanks again to all readers, and I look forward to sharing more actionable and profitable ideas with you in 2025.
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and good investing for 2025!
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