From Busted Merger Arb Play to Value Situation
I think you make a good case for the revenue/margin growth and against the execution risk, but your math for buybacks seems generous.
> I assume buybacks are completed at +10% vs. current price in FY22 / +15% vs. current price in FY23 / +20% vs. current price in FY24. This results in share count being reduced by ~29.6 million shares by FY24.
If your price target is $403/share by 2024, it seems unlikely they are going to buy back significant shares at $298 (+20% vs. current price) in 2024.
If you make the conservative assumption that they do their entire $8B buyback at the end at $400/share, then the retire 20M shares and your base case share price would be $367.50, which is 53% above current price, or 15.2% IRR, which is still pretty good.
I'm trying to figure out the business model risk regarding tech disruption. For instance, what is to stop someone like Paycom or ADP from cannibalizing the HR business? Or prevent some startup with an insurance marketplace from eating the brokerage? Is it just that WLTW's clients have such unique needs that commodity SaaS solutions will never support them?