3 is the only real explanation. The rest are all typical investment banker / sell side brokers ex post facto fiction to make it sound like they know what's happening, which they don't. (I spent 20 years doing the same)
A fantastic summary, as usual. May I ask you how do you calculate the market capitalization ( $1.5b) based on the $16 price or the $2bn at the $21.50 estimation? Thanks
I'm curious what the inflationary risks are to a company like DOLE? Do they pass it on? Can rising labor hurt them? Appreciate any feedback. Thanks for the great work.
Thank you Connor for the work! I have one question. In the press release of July 30th (IPO price announcement) TP says:
"In addition, the underwriters have been granted a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 3,750,000 ordinary shares at the initial public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions".
Does it mean that if the bankers want so they could "create" those 3,75M more shares diluting this way the curret shareholders equity or "piece of the pie"?
If so, would it be prudent to wait that month and see before considering adding some more shares? Or am I totally wrong?
Connor, Thank you so much for these writeups, I learnt so much during this process.
I think that as the deal is complicated and the IPO was unsuccesful Mr Market may take its time to re-rate DOLE to its comps level...
Hope it happens soon!
What I find awesome about this idea is the incredible Margin of safety it has... I forecast Dole may earn between 1,7-2,1 FCF per share this year and IMO this kind of business should have a minimum multiple of 15x up to 20x, I even find 15x a too low multiple for a business that does not suffer during crisis, is not cyclical and is going to grow its ebitda (5-7% cagr)..
Those valuations give us a PT from 25,5 to 42 and its actual price is 15,5. The margin of safety is huge here.
Was pulling the ipo or reducing considerably the number of shares offered an option? Did they really need the money and does it concern you that management was willing to offer shares at this level if they thought it was due to market conditions.
3 is the only real explanation. The rest are all typical investment banker / sell side brokers ex post facto fiction to make it sound like they know what's happening, which they don't. (I spent 20 years doing the same)
A fantastic summary, as usual. May I ask you how do you calculate the market capitalization ( $1.5b) based on the $16 price or the $2bn at the $21.50 estimation? Thanks
I'm curious what the inflationary risks are to a company like DOLE? Do they pass it on? Can rising labor hurt them? Appreciate any feedback. Thanks for the great work.
Thank you Connor for the work! I have one question. In the press release of July 30th (IPO price announcement) TP says:
"In addition, the underwriters have been granted a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 3,750,000 ordinary shares at the initial public offering price, less underwriting discounts and commissions".
Does it mean that if the bankers want so they could "create" those 3,75M more shares diluting this way the curret shareholders equity or "piece of the pie"?
If so, would it be prudent to wait that month and see before considering adding some more shares? Or am I totally wrong?
I'd appreciate any comment, I,m learning a lot!
Thanks so much!
Connor, Thank you so much for these writeups, I learnt so much during this process.
I think that as the deal is complicated and the IPO was unsuccesful Mr Market may take its time to re-rate DOLE to its comps level...
Hope it happens soon!
What I find awesome about this idea is the incredible Margin of safety it has... I forecast Dole may earn between 1,7-2,1 FCF per share this year and IMO this kind of business should have a minimum multiple of 15x up to 20x, I even find 15x a too low multiple for a business that does not suffer during crisis, is not cyclical and is going to grow its ebitda (5-7% cagr)..
Those valuations give us a PT from 25,5 to 42 and its actual price is 15,5. The margin of safety is huge here.
Thanks again!!
Was pulling the ipo or reducing considerably the number of shares offered an option? Did they really need the money and does it concern you that management was willing to offer shares at this level if they thought it was due to market conditions.